Documentation

Confidence, actions and alerts

How tradr scores every chart on a 1–5 confidence ladder, what LOAD / HOLD / TRIM mean, and which alert trigger fires which signal.

The 1–5 confidence rubric

Every analysis ships with a confidence score from 1 to 5. It reflects how textbook the setup is — not how likely the trade is to win. The market still does what it wants. Same rubric used by the AI on every read:

5/5Textbook

All major indicators aligned with the trend, clean structure, defined invalidation, and recent volume confirms the move. The kind of chart you'd put in a textbook chapter on this setup.

Example: Multi-month base breakout above resistance on 1.4× average volume; EMAs stacked 9 > 21 > 50 > 200; RSI 64 (momentum, not overbought); MACD bullish cross on rising histogram.

4/5Strong

Most indicators aligned with one minor disagreement. Clear structure with defined invalidation. High-confidence read but not perfect.

Example: Same breakout as above but volume is at 20-day average (not rising), or one EMA is briefly out of order during the consolidation.

3/5Moderate

Setup is forming but waiting on confirmation. Indicators partially aligned, partially mixed. Worth watching but not yet a high-conviction call.

Example: Coiled below resistance, RSI 55, MACD flat — wants to break out but hasn't confirmed yet.

2/5Forming

A setup hint with conflicting signals. One or two indicators support the read; others contradict.

Example: RSI shows oversold reversal potential but MACD still trending hard down and price below 50-EMA.

1/5Vague

No discernible setup or strongly conflicting signals. Range-bound, choppy, indicators flat. No edge.

Example: Price chopping inside a tight range for weeks, indicators oscillating with no direction.

LOAD · HOLD · TRIM

Every analysis is also tagged with a single recommended action. Three options, derived from the bias and confidence:

LOAD
Add to position

High-confidence (4 or 5) bullish setup. The chart suggests it's a moment to add or initiate a long.

HOLD
Wait for confirmation

Mid- or low-confidence read, or neutral bias. Setup is forming but not yet conclusive — sit on hands.

TRIM
Reduce or exit longs

High-confidence (4 or 5) bearish setup. The chart suggests it's a moment to take profit or close longs.

Why these three? Most retail traders are long-only. LOAD / HOLD / TRIM mirrors how you'd actually manage a position — not raw "buy" / "sell" / "hold" calls that ignore your existing exposure.

The alert trigger ladder

On every watchlist row you pick when an alert fires. The full ladder, from chattiest to quietest:

Any signal (1+)Most chatty

Fires on every analysis with any setup detected (confidence ≥ 1). Even vague reversal hints will alert you. Useful for learning how the AI reads charts.

Forming (2+)Chatty

Fires when a setup starts taking shape but isn't confirmed. Confidence ≥ 2 with a real setup.

Moderate (3+)Balanced

Setups with reasonable conviction. Confidence ≥ 3. Useful signals without spam.

Strong (4+)Selective

High-confidence setups only. Most major indicators aligned. Roughly 1–3 alerts per ticker per week.

Textbook only (5)Rare

Only perfect setups — confidence exactly 5. A few per ticker per month. Maximum signal-to-noise.

Bullish only (4+ long)Filtered

High-confidence LONG setups only. Filters out shorts. For traders who only buy.

Bearish only (4+ short)Filtered

High-confidence SHORT setups only. Useful for trim signals on existing longs.

On action changeLowest noise

Fires only when the recommendation flips from your previous alert. HOLD → LOAD → email. Two HOLDs in a row → silence. Default for new rows.

Off — paused

No alerts. Pause a ticker without removing it.

Default for new tickers

New watchlist rows default to On action change. You'll only get pinged when the recommendation flips — last alert said HOLD, this read says LOAD → email. Two HOLDs in a row → silence. It's the lowest-noise option and works well as a starting point. You can change it any time from the watchlist row.

Per-tier alert caps

To stop a single noisy ticker from blasting your inbox, daily-per-ticker caps apply:

  • Free — 0 scheduled alerts (in-app reads only).
  • Pro — 1 alert per ticker per day.
  • Power — 3 alerts per ticker per day.
  • Pro Trader — 12 alerts per ticker per day.

Polling cadence

Watchlist tickers are checked every 15 minutes during their home market's trading hours (US, ASX, NZX, LSE, TSX, plus 24/7 for crypto and FX). When the market is closed, no checks run. Watchlist prices on your dashboard refresh every 60 seconds while a market is open.

How confidence is actually scored

The AI weighs eight indicators against price action and recent structure on the timeframe you picked:

  1. EMA stack — 9 / 21 / 50 / 200. Order signals trend direction and strength.
  2. RSI 14 — momentum read. Above 70 overbought, below 30 oversold; 40–60 neutral.
  3. MACD — trend confirmation. Histogram expanding = momentum building; cross direction = trend shift.
  4. ATR 14 — volatility envelope. Sets stop distance and target spacing.
  5. Bollinger Bands — range and squeeze detection.
  6. Recent swing high / low — for breakout confirmation and structural levels.
  7. Volume — current vs 20-day average. Confirms or disconfirms the move.
  8. Trend label — derived classification: up / down / range.

A 5/5 needs all of these aligned. A 4/5 allows one minor disagreement (e.g. average volume on a breakout instead of rising volume). Anything more conflicted lands at 3 or below. The AI is asked to be precise with numbers and never to upgrade a score because the chart "looks right."

Confidence is clarity, not certainty. A textbook 5/5 setup can fail the next day for any number of reasons (news, broader market, low liquidity). Confidence tells you how clean the read is — your sizing, stop, and risk-management decide outcome.

Educational analysis only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Trading carries risk; never trade capital you cannot afford to lose.

Confidence + alerts — what each level means · tradr